Late Weekend Thoughts 4/29/24

This past weekend was our 28th anniversary, so we drove up to Niagara Falls to celebrate. Had a great time, even went to one of the best Buffalo Wing places in Buffalo (La Nova, it was delicious).

April continues to be a struggle, I am down 4.1% for the month and up 7.3% for the year. I will admit that I am starting to get really bearish on the markets. I think on any rallies in May/June that I will be doing some selling. This thought/plan is my own opinion and as a reminder my ability to time the markets is horrible.

Here are my 15 largest holdings.

TickerAllocationCumulative
JXN17.7%17.7%
DK6.2%24.0%
FRFHF5.9%29.9%
LQDA5.3%35.2%
ASLE5.3%40.6%
EGY4.7%45.3%
HROW4.5%49.7%
KGS4.2%54.0%
SNFCA3.6%57.6%
PDLB3.3%60.9%
SFL3.2%64.1%
WLFC3.1%67.2%
UNTC3.1%70.3%
CLMT2.8%73.1%
HG2.6%75.7%
15 Largest Holdings

What will I sell? I think most non core positions. And likely a few shares of core positions.

  1. Some JXN
  2. In August my FRFHF
  3. Uncovered LQDA on any rally
  4. Uncovered DK
  5. Maybe my CLMT
  6. CDLX, JRVR and maybe my WLFC

Stay tuned.

Here are my 15 Best Ideas for 2024:

TickerStartCurrent$ Gain% Gain
ACR9.9613.74$ 38038.0%
AMPY6.057.46$ 23323.3%
ASLE13.056.94$ (468)-46.8%
BUR13.5315.39$ 13713.7%
CLMT17.1815.52$ (97)-9.7%
DK26.5629.34$ 11411.4%
FRFHF898.831,084.74$ 22422.4%
HROW10.5710.53$ (4)-0.4%
IPI24.7719.53$ (212)-21.2%
LQDA11.7712.53$ 656.5%
MPW4.924.51$ (83)-8.3%
NMM28.5044.71$ 56956.9%
RITM-B23.5424.29$ 707.0%
ROIV10.8911.03$ 131.3%
UNTC65.3039.00$ (39)-3.9%
6.0%
15 Best Ideas

You know who had a good month? My shipping portfolio. It continues to rock and roll. But I may also unplug it at the end of May (I’ll probably regret that move).

StockStartCurrentDividendChange
CLCO11.3210.960.00-3.2%
CMRE11.4111.780.124.3%
DAC74.4075.210.001.1%
NMM42.6444.710.004.9%
TNP26.5425.910.00-2.4%
Monthly Gain1.7%
Overall Gain29.1%
Shipping Portfolio
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2 Responses to Late Weekend Thoughts 4/29/24

  1. marshgerda says:

    I went through all my names => if I went aggressive, I’d be selling about 33% of my portfolio. That would certainly be a lot of cash and position me very well should a down turn occur.

    The flip side is that I looked at the tax implications, I have some pretty substantial gains in many of these names. So I would certainly be bumping my estimated tax payments.

    We will see. Knowing me, I won’t be able to commit to a full follow through. But either way, I think it is proverbial “pen down” for me regarding any new purchases and I will certainly be selling at the margin as we approach summer.

    Like

  2. Jeff says:

    I think you are right to be careful right now. As far as timing is concerned I’m going to try to pay closer attention to Darren’s 4 factors to watch as well as Yardeni’s macro read.

    I have been leaning into my divi payers to hopefully weather any potential storm..

    I’ve got a number of names that are supposed to have some catalysts on the near horizon. Really would be nice to have a couple of those come thru.

    Liked by 1 person

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