Weekly Review & Discussion Board 4-29-2024

While I didn’t beat the S&P, Nadaq or RUT, I still had a pretty decent week. Up 1.79% for the week and now up 9.46% for the year. Still down -1.79% for the month of April but very happy with my year to date results which are beating all the US indexes fairly handily.

Used a lot of my cash from last week to increase all the names highlighted in yellow below. Interesting that I did not have a single negative name in my top 15. Not the same for some of my lesser names like VATE, down 12% or OMEX down 11.5%. However, my gut biome drug company MCRB caught a bid on rumors of a buyout. It was up over 45% on a .5% position for me. So far, no confirmation that the rumors might be true?

MINDP – it appears that the preferred shareholders rejected MIND’s 2.7 share conversion offer and the related special meeting set for 4-25 was postponed. Don’t have a rescheduled date yet but we may get it when they announce earnings this Monday, 4-29. Management had mentioned in their previous report that a number sales had been deferred into the current quarter so I’m expecting good earnings. I’m also hoping we get some updates on a rescheduled special meeting along with a sweetened offer for the preferred shares. I did add some additional shares with the hope for that sweetened deal. Fingers crossed.

I also added to my RMLFF after it appeared that there might be heightened interest in bidding for Citgo which is being auctioned off in order to pay various judgements against Venesualan seizure of US company assets. Prospects are looking better for the final bids which should be completed by July. RMLFF is currently about 92 cents but I’m hoping for a settlement that should raise the shares to a minimum of $1.50.

Other than the above, I primarily added to my current dividend payers and added a much larger position in ACRPRC. ACRPRC is currently paying a 9% divi but there is a high liklihood that the shares will be retired when they reach their first retired date sometime in September this year. With the divi.s a retirement of the shares at its $25 par value should result in a total yield of a little less than 18%.

I expect a more hawkish statement from the Fed on May 1st. Powell telegraphed as much in a statement that he made on 4-25. Hoping this is baked in with little market reaction this week?

Earnings continue in volume this week. I have the following this week

4-29 – MIND, ARI

4-30 JRVR, SMCI

SMCI – I’m out of SMCI last week with a nice 12% weekly gain. But? should I open a new position ahead of earnings as a trade? The pre-eminent chip maker SMCI traditionally pre-announces earnings but did not do so this time? Nevertheless its still down a ton from its recent high. Are we going to get a new pop? I’ll probably do nothing and just take the win that I already have. Regardless, I’ll be watching closely.

5-1 AMPY, PFE

AMPY? hoping for some positive updates on their expansion of their beta properties.

PFE? I recently bought PFE for what I hope is a LT hold. This is another beaten down name. RSI is bouncing around 30 and I’m hoping this solid 6% divi payer is ready for a pop.

5-2 AUTL, ARDX, LQDA

5-3 AMC – Hoping for an update on their 2026 bond extensions. These bonds were selling in the low 40s and if they get their extension they could easily get a bump into the 50s. However, I’m getting pretty winded on the struggles with my 2025 bonds which are in a very good position to be paid in full with something like a 20% return to redemption. Do I want to take on more AMC risk with a new investment in the 2026s?? NO!

Board is open

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4 Responses to Weekly Review & Discussion Board 4-29-2024

  1. marshgerda says:

    up over 80 bps today. No transactions. Waiting on MIND results

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  2. Jeff says:

    MIND earnings out. Just got back from the cabin and I need unpack. But earnings look great, as expected. Backlog is the highest its ever been.

    MINDP up over 10% AH.

    I drill into the info later.

    Like

    • Jeff says:

      I’m going to cheat and cut and paste Darren McGammon. FYI, if you haven’t already done so then you really should subscribe to his pay service. Not because of MINDP, which has, and probably will continue to be, a hot mess. But because his service is consistently outstanding.

      “MIND Q4: Very strong quarter as expected. In theory these gains accrue to the Preferred until they are paid in full.

      • Revenue $13.4 million, +50% vs. same qtr last year
      • Op Inc $2.3 million, +286%
      • EBITDA $2.6 million, +73%; 3.8x EV/EBITDA run rate
      • Net Inc $1.4 million (before Preferred are paid), +110%; 1.3x P/E run rate (99¢/sh EPS).

      This would still leave 35¢ per share for the common AFTER paying the preferred dividend.

      • Backlog >$38 million, essentially next 3 quarters already booked
      • As suspected a large increase in working capital; almost a $7 million increase just in inventory and accounts receivable.”

      MINDP is now up over 17% to $10.20 AH on decent volume.

      Feeling really good about increasing my MINDP by 30% last week and this morning. My basis in these new shares is $8.83. Basis in my old shares is $12.47 so still in the red overall.

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  3. Jeff says:

    I was up 55bps today, before MIND’s earnings.

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