AMC 2026 bondholders are proposing an extension for their bond repayments. Details or terms for extension were not outlined.
I wonder what this means for my 2025 bonds??
So far, with the exception of META, who actually reported great earnings but less popular guidance, the big 7 earnings and estimates are exceeding. So, for markets, earnings so far have been pretty much all good.
Feds favorite inflation gauge, the PCED index, will be reported this am and it definitely could have market moving impact.
Board is open
Beer, Whiskey and Pizza Investing Club 
I saw that Matt has a new video about JWN. I might get behind this one. It is very liquid. The upside isn’t huge, perhaps from $19 to $23, but in today’s markets that looks pretty good so long as wee assume downside is minimal (he says $17).
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Matt starts off his video saying, “if I had a time machine I’d go back and tell myself to stay away from bio tech stocks like BBIO and QURE”.
It has been a rocky ride. My three main bio tech “type” names have struggled in April:
It begs the question => if I decide to start investing some $, should I go with his JWN or just add to one of these names?
While LQDA is down the least, it seems like a great opportunity.
You can buy LQDA right now for $12.37. You could sell January $15 calls for $2.64. Personally I would give those a 75% chance of getting called. That’s a 42% return if called.
Or you could buy IOVA at $11.54 and sell January $12.50 calls for $2.95. That is over a 30% return and again I feel 75% likelihood seems reasonable.
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LIke LQDA and IOVA and have small positions in both. I might like HROW after we get 1st quarter earnings which even the rah, rah! MVI chat room thinks might be challenging. We’ll see where they guide and I may jump in then.
I also have several other small bio-pharma bets in ARDX, AUTL and MCRB. These names are highly volatile and subject to dramatic dilution on capital raises even if the drug thesis plays out successfully. Its not unusual for these names to go down 20 to 50% while waiting favorable study data or FDA approvals. I’m OK with the volatility as long as the potential is at least a one bagger or more. But I do think I have sized my positions accordingly.
I have to admit, its kind of like when you “crush” a drive off the tee versus 2 putting every green. Like investing, with golf you win with your nuts and bolts putting but that big drive off the tee is a hell of a lot more fun!
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And while I talk “big” and thinking a bit about using some of my dry powder, part of me just wants to “go turtle”.
I am still up over 6% for the year, not terrible, not a disaster.
I could
That would be a lot of $$$. Put it all in my money market at 4.7%. Then wait.
The problems with this?
Of course my SFL, KGS and the preferred stocks are making a higher yield than 4.7% (and DK and JXN aren’t that far behind).
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of course the easiest path is to do nothing. Probably the path I will follow. I kind of promised myself that I wouldn’t down a bunch of rabbit holes. I wrote it down (in case I forgot) – here was my plan:
I wouldn’t give myself a great grade.
I have dabbled in more low liquidity stocks this year than intended. That being said, a couple RMLFF is up 57% and NN did really well.
Stocks that can drop by 50%. I think I’ve stayed away from these names in 2024. GDRZF is one higher risk name, but very very small. HROW probably could get stomped again (yes I’m nervous, down 20% already in April).
I have not done a good job paring portfolio to 20 names. I’m always excited like a magpie by a glittering object. So I’ve bought small positions in JRVR, CDLX and ABUS in 2024. That being said, top 20 names are 86%. I need to move same names under 20 that are “safer” names up, like O and PEYUF. Some of my larger names are really illiquid stocks on which I await a catalyst (WLFC, PDLB, SNFCA and BUR for examples), so I am not getting down to 20 until those catalysts occur.
I struggle to find a tech name I like. In the next major selloff I just need to hold my nose and buy one or two.
I know I am rambling. My one component that has held up well here in April is my shipping portfolio => so there is more than one way to skin a cat. It is actually ever so slightly up in April and is now up 27.2% since I started it.
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Like your written trading rules. For me, I need to write a written rule to avoid options bet on longs or shorts, especially long calls which really have not worked well for me.
The allure of long call options is their relative low commitment of $$s to get exposure to high upside. The problem is that I sometimes give up the mostly likely 1st movement gains for a shot at rocket price moves.
There are generally good reasons for the call premium and I need to remember that I am not smarter than the market in determining whether that call premium is attactive relative to upside potential.
Written rule? I am not smarter than the options market.
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Couple additional thoughts. I think ABUS is a play on patent litigation against Moderna. ROIV owns 2.3rds of ABUS so an ABUS win is also a ROIV win. However, with ROIV v ABUS, I also get access to several other opportunities, like potential gains on other ROIV subsidiaries like IMVT. Personally, I like the broader potential of ROIV. Don’t think I want to own both.
The same might be true with RMLFF v GRDZF. Both have judgements against Venesuala for illegal seizures of their assets but RMLFF is notably higher on the payout totem pole. Both look like they should get payoffs but RMLFF appears to be in a better position and I think I’ll stick with RMLFF.
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One final thought. I follow a guy on twitter that is a very conservative investor, long term buy and hold type. He think a major possible change in the next few year (especially in democrats do well in upcoming election) is a change in capital gains taxes => perhaps taxed more like income.
While I want the democrats to win and I’d be more than happy to have this change in tax policy to make that happen (and I don’t necessarily think it is a wrong policy, why should capital gains be taxed differently than ordinary income?), it would certainly have a chilling impact on the market.
He commented he is trying to just keep a big chunk of his money in highly tax efficient ETFs and not sell in the foreseeable future. That is certainly an advantage of ETFs over individual stocks => which can have a catalyst forcing/encouraging a sale.
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Collected my nice 10% divi on my large position in BXSL.
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Looks the PCE came in higher than expected. Rate cut expectations are probably continuing to fall. Market reaction to higher for longer FED rates seem muted?
On the otherhand MSFT and GOOG earnings were stellar.
Hopefully market reaction to a hot PCE is offset by stellar big tech earnings?
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SOld my SMCI. Quick 3-5 day 12% gain.
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Woo Hoo, AMC 25 bonds are up to $87 today. Nice.
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Ended up about 62 bps. I think I had a decent week but as usual will add it up this weekend. Finally going to get the water turned on at the cabin. Fingers crossed we are done with pipe freezing temps for the season.
Everyone have a great weekend.
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