Discussion Board 11-24-2017

No black friday sales for me. Nothing there that I want that I pretty much don’t already have. Watching the pot stocks since Lynn indicated last night that they did well on the Toronto exchange yesterday while the US exchanges were closed. I’m taking Friday off to make a long weekend and only half a day in the markets. Hope that will give me a little time to get on the treadmill and work off the 15 lbs. of mashed potatoes and turkey I ate yesterday.  At least my Minnesota Vikings won. Ended up being a close game so, made it interesting.

Board is open

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Discussion Board 11-22-2017

Saw a couple interesting opportunities for potential value investing

https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-super-cheap-way-to-buy-vmware-1511289029?mod=djemb_dr_h&tesla=y

These share remind me of AABA which basically owns BABA and Yahoo Japan as their sole asset at a substantial discount. I own AABA April calls and I may take a closer look at the above as well.

Far riskier but none the less interesting is CBL

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4126332-backing-cbl-properties-strong-buy-yield-14_5-percent

BIG dividend once again at a substantial value discount. However, I do worry what happens when the economy turns as it always does.

I am heading up to the cabin to look at results and write the contractor another big check. Probably out of pocket most of the day so everyone have agreat thanksgiving. Watch the triptophan!.

Board is open.

 

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Discussion Board 11-21-2017

I’m guessing the markets will be pretty tame into Thanksgiving and I plan to take Wednesday off and head up to the new cabin to check on progress. Checked my cash levels and I’m still well over 50%. Also took a look at my 12/15 put sales to see if I can expect to collect some nice premium like November. Here are my Dec. put sales.

Apple $160

FSLR $92.5

MU $47

Of the 3 MU is the only one that is close to having me take the shares. At the moment I’d be fine taking the shares. However, I don’t really see much chance of MU falling between now and 12/15 and currently do not expect to have any of the shares put to me.

Saw this headline somewhere.

Greece to overshoot budget surplus targets in 2018

Really? Greece is running a budget surplus? I’m guessing they implemented Corporate tax reform granting massive tax  breaks to the richest citizens and multinational corporations who then of course trickled down the big bucks to hire a whole boat load of new employees and granted 20% raises to old employees who then in turn trickled their good fortune back up to the government thru donations from the delighted citizenry. , eh? What a great country. One for all and all for one!

Speaking of tax reform (good segue eh?), turns out the Republicans middle class tax cut bill in fact increases taxes on the poor (who will no longer be able to afford any health care worth having) and middle class while dramatically improving the lot of all Trump’s rich buddies including, of course, Trump and his family. The Republicans seem utterly clueless. We need tax reform, but, even more, we need someone with an ounce of decency and common sense to formulate how to do it without pretty much screwing the poor and middle class to shovel money at the rich and multinational corporations. This should be easy but the Republicans are tone deaf except for lobbyists and there friggin political donors (not saying the clinton democrats would be any better by the way).

Hoping this version of tax reform fails and board is open.

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Discussion Board 11-20-2017

Nothing all that exciting in my weekend reading.

Saw a couple decent ideas in Barron’s about selling calls on decent dividend stocks like T and IBM. While if made to choose, I’d prefer T, I just don’t know if I want to own those shares even with the divi’s and call premiums when I think the price risk is still too high.

Barrons did write that some of the auto makers may steal the innovation baton from Tesla. I love Elon Musk’s vision but production problems with the “3” and his attempt to misdirect shareholder attention from those problems by introducing two new products in the form of the electric Semi and new 1.8 sec. 0-60 roadster are starting to look a little desparate. Alternatively, I’m starting to be just a little impressed with Mary Barra and the new GM. No buys yet but I’m going to put them on my watch list.

Finally, in his weekly post, Jeff Miller pointed out that Bob Dieli’s C Score has raised the possibility of a recession in the next 9 months to >15% in a significant way from the previous <15%. By itself this is nothing to be worried about but its the first significant drop in the various quants that Jeff watches closely to anticipate a market downturn.

Watching tax reform closely and waiting for the senate vote?

Board is open.

Posted in Uncategorized | 12 Comments

Discussion Board 11-17-2017

Several weeks ago I sold 11/17 puts in the following securities:

  • AAPL 155
  • NVDA 190
  • UNIT 12.5
  • ALGN 192.50
  • SPG 150

Wish I’d bought calls in several of these names instead but right now I fully expect to collect the premiums on all these puts. Should be a substantial payday. Thank you rising market.

Board is open.

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Discussion Board 11-16-2017

So the Republicans added a repeal of the individual mandate to their tax reductions for the rich Tax Reform Bill. Since they’ve miserably failed to repeal health care for the poor and the middle class twice before, I’m not at all clear on the logic of this move?? They take a tax reform bill that forces the middle class and the next generation of our children and grand children to pay for their folly and pile on another unpopular effort to, once again attempt to effectively backdoor repeal health care for the citizens they supposedly serve, by repealing the individual mandate.

I think they added insult to injury and may have doomed tax reform in the process. More cash I think?

Board is open

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Discussion Board 11-15-2017

Reduced my positions in TK and SLSDF by 50% yesterday. Pretty substantial losses in both these sales. Just like I sell my momentum winners, I’m trying to sell my momentum losers even tho I believe that both are good LT investments. (FYI, even with these losses, TK is far and away my biggest winner for the year and I still have substantial longer term calls).

Still have a full position in both but since TK has options, I wish I had limited my TK investments to calls, rather than the shares. This would have far better limited my risk to the cost of my calls, which are substantially less than the risk associated with a direct investment in the common shares. Live and learn but truly trying to learn eh?

While my trading account continues to out perform, my restricted retirement accounts are grinding lower every day. Nothing alarming but really wish I had better options than just cash (which I have alot of). My employer even removed the only emerging market option I had last week and if I sell any fund, they do not allow any reinvestment for 90 days??? Thank god they are protecting me from me and not somehow profiting from my limited ability manage my own affairs. Can you say lower employer plan costs.

Board is open.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments