Discussion Board 3-24-2017

There is no way in hell the latest draft of the RACA will ever pass the Senate. Trump wants a “win” at all costs. Hmmmmmmm what if he starts talking to the Democrats? To be honest, I think the Freedom Caucus are a bunch of politically suicidal maniac’s. From what I read, Trump gave them virtually everything except, guaranteed coverage of pre-existing conditions and coverage for children until age 26. Wow, most people would declare victory and run for the exits if they got 95% of what they wanted?Those people are nuts!

Trump has to have a win. His ego will not tolerate anything else. How will he get it?? Scary and something’s got to give. I’m surprised by the lack of market reaction to the RACA impass up to the close and in AH. Nonetheless, added another 5% to my already large cash position at the close. I do love politics but mostly hope my son’s don’t pay the price for this nonsense.

Board is open.

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Discussion Board 3-23-2017

CNN reports:

“US Officials: Info suggests Trump associates may have coordinated with Russians”.

Would anyone out there have voted for Mike Pence for President? cuz that’s where this is headed. This can not be good for the Republican RACA or the markets. I’m almost completely out of US small caps. Have plenty of cash so I’m moving a good chunk to Foreign large caps but might take a small VIX position as well.

Board is open

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

Discussion Board 3-22-2017

You have to admit, if you are a political junky like I am, this whole process of confirming Gorsuch as the next SPJ and the Republicans effort associated with the passage of “Trump care” (hey Paul are you jealous of John’s retirement?) is utterly fascinating. I have no idea where this is going but I’m pretty sure the vote on the RACA (Republican ACA) on thursday will be a clear indicator on whether Rome will burn or whether Trump will be validated in his “whims”? If this results in a “no” or no vote I do think the market will have a major negative reaction and I have put my stops in place accordingly. I would suggest everyone do the same.

Sorry, I went 2 days without any Trump reference but I just can’t stand it.

Board is open.

Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments

Discussion Board 3-21-2017

As I get closer and closer to retirement I find myself wondering how I might be able to safely do better than the usual 4% return that advisors say you can rely on. Doing a little reading this weekend, I found the following suggested portfolio which apparently has earned annual returns of 7.8% from 1997 to to date. Here is the recommended portfolio:

The Buy and Forget Portfolio

  • 20% domestic US stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY)
  • 20% international stocks (NYSEARCA:IXUS)
  • 10% emerging stock markets (NYSEARCA:EEM)
  • 20% Real Estate Investment Trusts (NYSEARCA:VNQ)
  • 15% long term US Treasury Bonds (NYSEARCA:TLT)
  • 15% Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (NYSEARCA:TIP)

The recommendations make sense to me with the exception that I may want to wait to add the TLT portion of the recommendation since I think rising interest rates are clearly going to be an anchor for Long Term Treasuries for at least the next couple years and I see no reason to dive into those avoidable losses.

If you interested, here is the full link.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4056093-buy-forget-portfolio?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

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Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments

Discussion Board 3-20-2017

Barron’s Best Online Brokers rating

Saw Barron’s ratings for online brokers this weekend. They rated both of my brokers,  (Fidelity and Interactive Brokers) #1 and #2 respectively. I highly recommend both although there are clear differences and reasons for liking one over the other.

While commissions and fees are a little higher for Fidelity v IB, Fidelity is still far lower than the industry as a whole. I pay 3.95 per equity trade and basically .65 (and usually less) per option contract and you do have fairly easy access to numerous foreign exchanges (i have occasionally bought JP and Korean stocks with some success). They also have a wide range of their own low cost ETFs which cost nothing to buy or sell. In addition, FIdelity regularly gets me price improvement on my trades which no other broker has ever done and probably more than offset my commissions and fees. Finally, Fidelity’s website and mobile app is excellent. Far more user-friendly and quite capable and you can actually get someone on the phone if needed.

IB has rock bottom fees and costs especially for options, but has little or no user support and their “Trader Workstation, “TWS” website, while wide and deep on the data side and almost infinitely customizable as to the information you want to review, is not, I repeat not, user-friendly. There is a huge learning curve which I think they are trying to improve with some standard templates that I have not tried yet. Also, I have never gotten a better price than my requested bids and asks.

Between the two, I think Fidelity is the better choice for the vast majority of investors and traders. (IB might be a better choice if you do a lot of options trading). I can vouch that it is a royal PIA to switch and your current broker is probably not going to make it any easier for you, but it may be worth it to do so.

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments

Discussion Board 3-17-2017

Amazon Launches Free Beer Delivery!

I was against Amazon’s drone delivery plans, till now. I wonder if I’ll start getting some kind of “Pavlov’s dog” response from the sound of drones from now on? You know, saliva response and a reflexive reach out for my sweet dually beer hat?

Board is open.

Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments

Discussion Board 3-16-2017

Saw the below in Bloomberg a couple days ago. I ask you? Beyond the absolutely horrendous appearance of this ill advised transaction. How can this not be a conflict of interst in fact?

A company owned by the family of Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, stands to receive more than $400 million from a prominent Chinese company that is considering investing in the Kushners’ marquee Manhattan office tower at 666 Fifth Ave.The planned $4-billion transaction includes terms that some real estate experts consider unusually favorable for the Kushners. It would provide them with both a sizable cash payout from Anbang Insurance Group for a property that has struggled financially and an equity stake in a new partnership.

Yellen raised rates today as expected and the market seemed to love it. How long does this last without a correction? I’m not biting but I am looking off shore and at emerging markets for some opportunities. Really having trouble finding any value in the US? Does anyone see anything that might be worth a few $s of my cash hoard?

Board is open.

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments